Impactos do La Niña de 2022 na produtividade do dendê na Amazônia: análise agrometeorológica e implicações para a sustentabilidade

Received: 22/05/2025
Published: 30/01/2026

Manuel António Henriques dos Reis Lopes

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Abstract

A B S T R A C T

This article analyzes the impacts of climate change on oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) crops in the region of Belém, Pará, influenced by the performance of the La Niña phenomenon based on agrometeorological data from the Embrapa Eastern Amazon station for the year 2022, compared to the climatological average from 1967 to 2021. Although the focus is on the city of Belém, the data analyzed are considered representative of the edaphoclimatic conditions prevailing in producing areas of the humid Amazon, allowing inferences applicable to other regions of oil palm cultivation. The study adopts an exploratory-descriptive approach using the Penman-Monteith method to estimate reference evapotranspiration and water balance, and analyzes key variables such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind. Results show that while the annual average temperature (26.7 °C), relative humidity (85%), and sunshine levels remained within ideal ranges, significant anomalies were observed, such as water deficits in key months and lower solar radiation in the first quarter, affecting photosynthesis and fruit filling. The estimated productivity was 20.2 t/ha of fresh fruit bunches (FFB), 4.4 t/ha of palm oil, and 0.5 t/ha of palm kernel oil, equivalent to approximately 80% of the ideal potential. Compared to other producing countries (Colombia, Malaysia, and Indonesia), Brazil demonstrated climatic resilience in productivity The study concludes that, with proper management, oil palm cultivation in the Amazon remains technically and economically viable even under challenging climate conditions.

Keywords: La Niña; Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis); Agrometeorology; Evapotranspiration; Agricultural sustainability